Andrew Robb | Andrew Robb RE/MAX Fine Properties Andrew Robb | Andrew Robb RE/MAX Fine Properties

Phoenix Real Estate Report

phoenix real estate market update
1. How fast are homes selling? Average number of days on market is 35 (down 19 days from last year)
2. How many homes are for sale? We currently have 4,577 properties for sale (down 69.3% from last year)
3. What is the average sales price? Homes around the valley are selling for $470,289 (up 24.3% from last year)

March’s supply was down 2.5% from March 2020 (with 11,066 homes listed for sale last month) and March’s demand was up 17.4% from March 2020 (with 10,404 homes sold last month). Average home values increased over 24% in the last year and we presently have only 0.85 month of inventory, which is down from 1.68 months at this time last year. Under 3 months supply means a seller’s market, between 3 and 5 months means a balanced market, and over 5 months means a buyer’s market. The fact we are staying below 1 month of inventory is record-breaking!

What is going on? We need to look no further than hysterically low inventories, where active listings are 69.3% lower compared to 2020. The term absorption rate is a metric used to evaluate the rate at which available homes are sold during a given time. It is calculated by dividing the number of homes sold by the total number of available homes. By historical standards, an absorption rate greater than 20% is a seller’s market, while an absorption rate below 15% is a buyer’s market. We currently have an absorption rate of 272.5%. When we look at the gross dollar sales volume for the first quarter, the numbers are staggering. In Q1 2021 we reported a gross dollar sales volume of $11.2 billion. This gross dollar sales volume surpassed the record-setting pace of last year by 36% and beat 2005 by 77%.

Is this 2005 all over again? The reason we reference 2005 is because it was a year characterized by extremely low inventories, high sales volume and rapid price appreciation. 2005 still reports the highest yearly sales volume in history and ended with a 39% gain in the median sales price, hence the reasons many analysts today point to 2005 in their analysis. However, while low inventory levels and rapid appreciation are similar, the market today has many differences. In 2005 we were adding many more homes to our housing supply through new construction. According to county assessor records 91,871 homes and condos were built between 2004 and 2005. Over the last two years, the assessor reported 31,829 new homes built. There were nearly 3x as many new homes added to the housing inventory in 2005 compared to today. In 2005 there were very loose loan underwriting standards. NINJA was a slang term for a loan extended to a borrower with little or no attempt by the lender to verify the applicant’s ability to repay. It stood for no income, no job, no assets. Today the underwriting process includes verifying the applicant’s identity, checking stability and amount of income, verifying employment, reviewing tax returns, examining financial statements, checking credit score and perusing credit reports to make sure they can afford the loan, as well as adhering to strict underwriting guidelines. Interest rates today are 3.13% according to Freddie Mac, in March of 2005 rates were 5.93%.

What can we expect? Real estate markets are cyclical, and this cycle will end too, but I do not see our current market following the disastrous path of 2005. 2021 is a byproduct of market dynamics, while 2005 was a result of speculation without restraint. The most frequently asked question is, “When will the market shift?” My only response is “no time soon”. In the short term, I just do not see where the additional supply needed to balance our market will come from. There is a common belief that once the COVID-19 Mortgage Forbearance is lifted the housing market will see a flood of homes become available. With Mortgage Forbearance just extended (again), millions of homeowners with federally guaranteed mortgages have the option to extend their forbearance an additional six months, and the federal foreclosure moratorium deadline has been pushed back to June 30, 2021. The first signs of a market shift will be subtle. Listing agents will begin seeing fewer offers. They will still sell the home quickly, but they will see the number of offers decline. The real indication of a market shift will show in the supply vs demand charts, but the current extremes can not and will not change dramatically overnight. So I will keep monitoring the data searching for those subtle changes. In the meantime, if you were shocked by our quarterly numbers, wait until you see our semi-animal numbers!

Data from ARMLS® COPYRIGHT 2021.

9801 N 37TH DR, Phoenix

* MULTIPLE OFFERS * Original owner has taken great care & pride of ownership shines! Over 15,000 sq ft private lot on secluded street with no HOA! Solid oak French door greets you into expansive foyer with vaulted ceiling living room & formal dining room. Also features a family room with cozy fireplace. And here come the updates… new wood-look tile, refreshed bathrooms, all new carpet & blinds just installed, interior just painted, new HVAC replaced only 2 months ago, roof replaced in 2012 with upgraded shingles, water heater only 2 years old & dual pane windows throughout. Bring all your toys… expanded parking slab can accommodate at least 6 vehicles behind custom wrought iron gates, plus there is an attached 2-car garage at rear of home.

Phoenix home for sale, marketed by Phoenix Realtor Andrew Robb.

Listing Price: $379,000
MLS #: 6219906
Address: 9801 N 37TH DR
City: Phoenix
State: AZ
ZIP: 85051
Home Size: 1,887
Lot Size: 15,442
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Garages: 2
Pool: N

6767 W LUCIA DR, Peoria

Luxurious & impeccable Camelot home situated in very quiet cul-de-sac on 0.43 acre lot within gated community & breathtaking mountain preserve in back yard. Desirable floorplan offers 5 large bedrooms, office/den, upstairs bonus room, formal dining room, huge eat-in kitchen (with brand name appliances: Viking, Sub-Zero, Bosch), 5-car climate controlled garage & private courtyard located inside home. Entertain stylishly in totally private backyard with rock pool, built-in BBQ, large seating area & covered patio. Meticulously maintained by original owner & upgraded throughout with wet bar, custom garage cabinets, solid wood doors & floors, 50-amp plug for electric car & owned 17kw solar system. Exterior recently painted. These magnificent homes do not come available often, so make your move!

Canyon’s Edge Camelot home for sale, marketed by North Peoria Realtor Andrew Robb.

Listing Price: $1,425,000
MLS #: 6215936
Address: 6767 W LUCIA DR
City: Peoria
State: AZ
ZIP: 85383
Home Size: 5,140
Lot Size: 18,950
Bedrooms: 5
Bathrooms: 4.5
Garages: 5
Pool: Y

17839 N 130TH AVE, Sun City West

* SOLD FOR LIST PRICE * Hard-to-find expanded Berkeley model on oversized fully fenced corner lot with beautiful curb appeal. Kitchen features large island with breakfast bar, tons of cabinet space & large pantry. Huge laundry room also offers plenty of storage space. Pride of ownership shines with numerous improvements throughout: new dual pane windows in 2014, new roof in 2018 with warranty, new water heater, new washing machine, new dishwasher, new living room carpet, new garage door opener, new solar roof fan, new solar tube in bathroom, new irrigation system (control, pipes & drips), new water shut-off valves, Rheem HVAC unit replaced in 2013 and termite warranty in place.

Sun City West home for sale, marketed by Sun City West Realtor Andrew Robb.

Listing Price: $346,000
MLS #: 6205034
Address: 17839 N 130TH AVE
City: Sun City West
State: AZ
ZIP: 85375
Home Size: 2,370
Lot Size: 10,520
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Garages: 2
Pool: N

17855 N LAINIE CT, Surprise

* SOLD * GOLF COURSE VIEW! Original owner has well cared for this home. Spacious floorplan on quiet cul-de-sac lot near 17th tee box of Coyote Lakes (public course). Gorgeous backyard landscaping with artificial turf & incredible view looking all the way down 17th fairway. Inside you will find tile & high quality laminate wood (no carpet), plus custom spa-like glass shower & extra cabinets at master bathroom. Kitchen features luxurious high-end granite counter & all black appliances (from 2018) with fridge conveying. Ideal layout with guest bedroom & office split from master bedroom. Less to worry about knowing HVAC system was fully replaced in 2009 (with new compressor installed 2018), pre-wired for security system, water softener, plus 80 gal solar water heater & 50 gal gas water heater backup.

Coyote Lakes home for sale, marketed by Coyote Lakes Realtor Andrew Robb.

Listing Price: $309,475
MLS #: 6144499
Address: 17855 N LAINIE CT
City: Surprise
State: AZ
ZIP: 85378
Home Size: 1,788
Lot Size: 5,436
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Garages: 2
Pool: N
Andrew Robb - RE/MAX Fine Properties, 21020 N Pima Rd, Scottsdale AZ 85255